What Could Be Worse Than Drought or Forest Fires?

     Most of my posts lately have been about gardens and farmers' markets with photos of the abundance in both. Food, food, glorious fresh, wholesome food!

      But this week, something forced me to look at them in a different way, especially the community garden. Rather than a verdant space shared by dozens of gardeners with myriad skills and goals, it could, in a matter of horrifying minutes, become a go-to source of survival food for more than just the gardeners and their families.

      My twist of vision came with the powerful article by Kathryn Schulz in the New Yorker Magazine, titled The Really Big One; An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when. In it she describes a big—plus a really big—earthquake, one of which is predicted to hit the west coast within the next 50 years (or days? or minutes?). It's curious that it was in a publication more prominent on the east coast.

      People I've talked with who've read it have reacted in one of two ways: Some have since been mentally planning and physically organizing whatever preparations they feel they can make. Others shrug and say we've known a big earthquake is coming and there's nothing they can do about it so they're not going to worry about it. Yeah, but we had no idea it could be as big as Schulz describes after interviewing experts for well over a year. Am I the only one who missed the memo or report? It sure doesn't seem so by the reaction the article has garnered.

      While we have no idea how big it will be—if it will be “just” the big one, or the really big one—I'm one who feels we need to be aware and as prepared as possible. Individuals and families can prep for themselves, communities can for their neighborhoods, and governments for the even greater good. Maybe it won't be as bad out here in the country as it is in town. Maybe it will be worse. No one knows. I suspect people in rural areas would be lower on the rescue list, so it's essential to do what we can for ourselves.

Some countries where earthquakes are more common have done more to prepare than we have in the U.S. Schulz points out that most of the PNW had no seismic code until 1974, and few buildings constructed before 1994 could withstand a magnitude-9.0 earthquake today. Though I've only felt slight tremors in our 35 years here, I did experience numerous earthquakes in Latin America, one of which knocked me off my feet. Buildings were being retrofitted to minimize damage in Mexico City way back in the 1960s. Some buildings in Japan withstood the deadly quake and tsunami four years ago; quakes are more common there and they knew the worst was yet to come.

     Communities on the Oregon coast have planned for a tsunami, but if the worst-case-scenario “really big one” described in the article occurs, all the preparations in the world would do little to ensure survivability for the majority. Granted, local and state governments can do just so much to retrofit buildings and prepare for the worst now, mainly because of cost. But, the cost of clean-up and re-building would dwarf that expenditure. Still, it's hard to get people to rally around a “maybe” or even an unimaginable “probably.” When I see small children, I wonder what natural disasters they will experience in their lifetimes, well within the projected 50 years.

What Can We Do?

       That question has been eating away at me, as has the thought that at any minute I could be asking what should I have done. That's helped frame my thoughts – imagining the aftermath and saying, I wish I had... (fill in the blank). There are a lot of blanks to fill.

      At the very least I can gather supplies of water, food and everything else listed on basic websites  and create an appropriate First Aid kit. We routinely have a considerable amount of water and food stored, but would it be accessible where it's stored right now? Or will all those gallon glass jars stored on the floor in the coolest spot in the house be crushed?

      One should have basic supplies on hand in any case. In recent years I've begun to worry about forest fires raging through the neighborhood, leaving us (if not burned like crispy bacon) likely without basics such as electricity (thus the ability to pump water from our wells), communications (cell phones don't work in the “bowl” our property rests in – both a blessing and a curse) and likely blocked roads preventing us from getting out for a while, or help to get in. So, we gotta' fend for ourselves. It's during power outages that I'm most grateful we have a compost toilet.

      But, where should one store supplies? In a house that might collapse or burn? Buried in the woods where trees can burn or fall on it? In an open field where it will deteriorate faster? Where might the ground “open up”? At the moment, I'm thinking stashes in various places would be best.

      The time of year a quake hits will also alter needs, especially in clothing and shelter. Would our woodstove be accessible if it hits in winter? Would it be safe to use? Would it be safe to go into the house even if it looks ok, but everything inside has been tossed about, including heavy furniture and appliances? Would nearby streams be full and running at that time of year?

      We used to have medical professionals in the neighborhood – an ER doc and a nurse. Both have moved away. What talents, skills or people trained in crisis response live among those new to the neighborhood? We used to know most of the neighbors, or at least of them. I regret that I don't know many of the new people. Will we meet under panicked circumstances? One can only imagine the stories to be told decades after the event about the surprising things you learned about the neighbors you do know – and those you don't.

      Back to the community garden. Depending on the time of year and amount of devastation, community gardens everywhere could be wiped clean as quickly as grocery stores would be. There would be no farmers' market that week - or for many, many months or years to come. In fact, food getting in from the outside could be impossible - or at the very least, very difficult, for some time.

      Experts, such as paleoseismologist Chris Goldfinger of OSU estimate a 1 in 3 chance for the “big one” to occur within the next 50 years and a 1 in 10 chance that the really big one will, according to Schulz's article.

      How lucky are you feeling today?